Bitcoin’s latest pullback is turning into a short-term support test after a TD Sequential buy signal appeared on the 4-hour chart, giving traders a fresh reason to watch the $80,000 area.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged the signal, saying BTC could rebound toward the 50-period simple moving average near $80,000 if buying pressure increases while price continues to hold above the 200-period SMA. The call frames $80,000 as the first recovery target, not a confirmed breakout level.
Bitcoin traded near $78,100, down about 1.4% over 24 hours, with a 24-hour range between roughly $77,700 and $79,500. That keeps BTC below the psychological $80,000 handle, but still close enough for a fast retest if spot demand improves and short-term sellers lose momentum.
The TD Sequential is typically used to identify trend exhaustion after a directional move. In this case, the signal is bullish only if buyers defend the 200 SMA and push price back through nearby resistance. A clean 4-hour move above $80,000 would strengthen the rebound case, while a decisive loss of the $77,700 to $78,000 area would weaken it and expose BTC to another liquidity sweep lower.
ETF Outflows Keep The Rebound Setup Fragile
The rebound argument is forming against a weaker liquidity backdrop. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $290.4 million in net outflows on May 15, after a $630.4 million exit on May 13. Across the week, spot Bitcoin products suffered roughly $1 billion in redemptions, cutting into the ETF bid that had helped stabilize BTC near the $80,000 zone.
That flow pressure helps explain why Bitcoin has struggled to hold rallies above $80,000 even as dip buyers continue to appear around the high-$77,000 range. Trading activity also cooled, with CoinGecko listing Bitcoin’s 24-hour volume near $29.8 billion and down more than 30% from the prior day.
The broader market tone has not been strong enough to carry BTC on sentiment alone. Bitcoin was already back under the $79,000 area as major tokens weakened, leaving BTC dominance elevated while liquidity stayed concentrated in the market’s largest asset.
For traders, the level structure is tight. Holding above the 200 SMA keeps Martinez’s $80,000 rebound target active. A reclaim of $80,000 would put the short-term 50 SMA back under pressure and could force bearish intraday positioning to unwind. A break below the $77,700 range low would invalidate the immediate bounce setup and shift attention back to downside liquidity rather than recovery momentum.
