The Bitcoin price has entered another post-FOMC window, and there’s a pattern that has become difficult to ignore. According to crypto analyst and commentator Ardi, Bitcoin has sold off in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, with the average seven-day decline coming in near 11%.
That history is now being tested again. Bitcoin was trading around $77,000 around the latest Fed decision, and the history shows a hint of how the price action might resolve in the coming days.
Bitcoin’s Trend In Post-FOMC Weeks
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its April 28-29 meeting on Wednesday, holding interest rates unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This decision was already anticipated, and the CME FedWatch had priced in a 99% probability of a hold in the days prior.
Crypto analyst and commentator Ardi published his findings on X alongside a Bitcoin daily chart across May 2025 to late April 2026. His observation was that Bitcoin has sold off hard in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. The lone exception was May 2025, when BTC had already fallen about 24% from its all-time high before the meeting even began.
Every other meeting produced a post-decision drop. The policy direction was almost irrelevant, and Bitcoin’s price dropped whether the Fed cut rates, held them, or delivered hawkish commentary.
The chart Ardi shared shows the pattern visually, with successive red zones showing the post-FOMC sell windows across September, October, and December 2025, then January and March 2026, each one landing as BTC worked its way from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 down to the $60,000s by early February 2026.
An Average Drop Of 11%
Ardi’s data goes further than simply noting direction. The trend is that Bitcoin has dropped in eight of the last nine post-FOMC periods, with an average decline of about 11% over the following week.
Applied to BTC’s price heading into this week’s meeting, which was trading in the $76,000 to $79,000 range after a 21% April rally from early-month lows near $65,000, an 11% drop would return the price to $70,000 within the next week.
The Fed said economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, but also pointed to elevated inflation, partly linked to higher global energy prices. That matters for Bitcoin because the asset remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations. A clear path to rate cuts would support risk appetite, weaken the dollar, and improve sentiment across the crypto industry. A cautious Fed environment does the opposite.
On one side, Bitcoin had already recovered strongly from its recent lows and was supported by a better April trend. On the other side, the FOMC meeting places Bitcoin in a risky historical position that might see it return to $70,000 in the coming days.
Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
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