A newly created Polymarket wallet made more than $9 million in profit after backing Cape Verde to survive against Spain in one of the biggest prediction-market wins of the World Cup.
The account, shown as fishalive on Polymarket, had about $9.06 million in past-day profit/loss after the match. The wallet reportedly spent about $4.22 million across two positions: Spain not to win and Cape Verde +2.5 in the spread market.
Both trades settled in the wallet’s favor after Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw in Atlanta. Spain dominated possession and created the stronger attacking volume, but Cape Verde’s defensive structure and goalkeeper Vozinha kept the European champions out.
The result was historic for Cape Verde, which earned a point on its World Cup debut against one of the tournament favorites. For Polymarket traders, it became an immediate example of how one underdog result can flip a single-game market into an eight-figure payout event.
Why Both Bets Paid Out
The Spain-Cape Verde payout also followed another major World Cup prediction-market win, when LEEEROYJENKINS made more than $5 million after Australia beat Türkiye 2-0. That trade used a similar structure: betting against a favorite to win while adding spread protection on the underdog.
The trade worked because it did not require Cape Verde to win outright. A Spain “No” position could win if Spain failed to win, meaning a draw was enough. The Cape Verde +2.5 spread leg was even wider. Cape Verde only needed to avoid losing by three or more goals.
The 0-0 result made both outcomes clean. Spain failed to win, and Cape Verde covered the spread by a full margin. That combination turned a bet against the heavy favorite into one of the most visible World Cup prediction-market stories so far.
World Cup prediction markets have already become a major crypto trading theme. Earlier tournament flows included a Polymarket whale placing $478K across long-shot World Cup winner bets, while tournament settlement infrastructure has drawn attention through Chainlink-powered FIFA World Cup prediction markets.
Prediction Markets Get Another World Cup Stress Test
The Spain-Cape Verde result shows why single-match markets can move faster than traditional sports narratives. Most attention was on Spain’s quality, squad depth and favorite status. The wallet instead traded the probability that Spain would fail to convert dominance into a win.
That is the core prediction-market difference. The trader did not need to prove Cape Verde was the better team. The trade only needed the market to misprice the chance of a draw or a narrow Cape Verde loss.
The wallet’s visible past-day profit/loss now stands near $9.06 million, with the position tied to one of the biggest shocks of the early World Cup group stage. Spain left with one point, Cape Verde left with a clean sheet, and one newly created Polymarket account turned a scoreless draw into a nine-figure-profile payout.
